Future Travel

 

Now, here is an interesting piece on the BBC News "Future Planet" page: it raises questions (as the title suggests) about how we would cope in a world where flying is a thing of the past.  It takes a scenario where the only way to meet the emissions targets agreed at various Climate Forums, like last year's Glasgow gathering, is to enact an immediate, global ban on all flying,  Sure, it's a highly unlikely scenario, not least because I frankly cannot see a political landscape any time soon where there will be a total agreement on doing it: too many countries are locked into a dependence on aviation in order to survive and compete in the global economy with any hope of success.  Island nations like the Seychelles, the Maldives and those in the Pacific are prime examples.  But something drastic will be needed if humanity is going to come even close to achieving the 1.5% mean temperature increase limit by 2050 that was agreed, in order to stave off a climate catastrophe that will affect every living thing on this planet.

What would a flying-free world look like? - BBC Future

I'll leave you to follow the link and read the article for more information and some surprising statistics.  While there is perhaps little new or surprising in it (those statistics aside), the article does make some interesting points I hadn't considered before: for instance, if we don't need vast airports like Heathrow and Schiphol and JFK and countless others around the world, all of which have really good transport connections and support infrastructure already in place, what are we going to do with them if there are no more flights? What about the tens of millions of people, from pilots to toilet cleaners, whose livelihoods depend on an aviation industry?  And their families.....  

But I'm not going to even attempt to get into all that - simply because I'm not qualified to consider doing so.  And even if I were, a single personal opinion, especially that of an ageing ex-pat retiree in Poland, is not going to affect the outcome of all this.....it's way above my pay-grade, as the saying goes.  I would go as far as to say there is not one single person alive who is capable of coming up with all the answers, and mankind being what it is, finding any kind of consensus, especially a lasting one to confront a global, life-or-death issue, just ain't gonna happen.  At least until it's too late.

But I can still comment and give my personal views, both on flying and some of those alternatives.  And how they might affect me in my future travel. 

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As someone who has spent most of this 21st century travelling for a living and nowadays merely for pleasure, I do have a bit of a vested interest.  In those 20 odd years, a rough calculation based on the number of airmiles racked up on various airline Frequent Flyer rewards programs suggests I've travelled somewhere north of half a million miles by plane.  I've included here many flights on airlines that either do not have Frequent Flyer programs or I don't belong to theirs.  For an average of 40 weeks a year I was making a minimum of 2 flights a week, around Europe, to the US, the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.  Oh, and a few times to the Caribbean and once to South America and back. And those were just the work flights, paid for by employer or client.....  There were holiday trips too, around the Med and to Egypt once. I can't be bothered to dig out all my diaries and try to count them all, but the total number must be in the thousands.  It's a helluva lot of carbon emissions, anyway, and I'm sure dear Greta would give me a clip round the ear.....

And mostly I enjoyed it all.  I was lucky, and had very few mishaps on all of those journeys.  Lost baggage only a couple of times, no more than a handful of cancellations and only, from memory, a couple of missed flights (one of which was my own fault).  A lot were in Business Class, which was always good but never in the 5-star luxury accommodation offered nowadays by the likes of Emirates, Qatar Airways, Qantas and the other real long haul specialists.  I never had a proper lie-flat bed for a start, and never managed to bag a pair of pyjamas to go with the branded slippers and amenity kits.  But mostly, it was Economy (why do American's always insist on calling it Coach?), especially the holiday trips that I paid for myself.  Mostly they were comfortable enough too - with a few exceptions (notably a LOT flight to JFK in an ageing and rattly Boeing 767 that featured the ancient blue plastic-tube headphones and one small screen per three-seats, and an awful Delta Airlines flight from Cincinnati to Paris in the middle seat of the central row of 4, sandwiched between two exceedingly fat and - sorry! - smelly and flatulent Mexicans who wouldn't even let me out to the toilet for nearly 7 hours....).  

It was a great period in my life, and I came to love the whole thing about flying - the airport Lounges, the different planes, even the security lines (with the possible exceptions of JFK, Mexico City and Tel Aviv), the sometimes crap food, and most of all the destinations themselves when eventually you get there.   Nowadays, because of retirement and Covid, I mostly see airplanes from afar, but even then it gives me a tingle of excitement when I see something special.  

A month or so ago I went for a long walk over to my dzialka, which is close to the airport, just for the exercise.  It was a misty day with a very low cloud base, and as I walked alongside the airport's boundary fence I could hear a big plane coming in and very close.  It suddenly burst through the clouds, not much more than 300 metres away, and at a height of perhaps a couple of hundred: an Emirates 777-300 coming in from Dubai, the airline name painted in big black letters along its belly, gliding serenely down to the runway, engines throttled back.  Before I could fumble my phone out and switch to camera mode it was gone, hidden by some trees, as it touched the tarmac (I heard the faint tyre screech) and reversed-thrust to slow down and stop. It was majestic.....

Try as I might, and I understand the issue surrounding emissions and how bad flying is for the planet, I simply cannot imagine a world without it. 

Nor would I want to see it.  I miss it.

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The BBC article covered alternative solutions to flying, the most popular and probably most practical and quickly achievable being High-Speed Trains.  There are already hundreds of routes scattered throughout the world, with more opening constantly - although interestingly there is not a single HST service in the entire gas-guzzling USA.  The closest thing there to what we would class a high speed train - that is, one that operates at speeds in excess of 200kph - , at least that I'm aware of, has only been open a year or so and runs from Miami to Fort Lauderdale in Florida, and for regulatory reasons does not achieve that speed, even though technically capable of it.  In fact, the American rail system is a bit weird, remaining dominated by freight trains, with even the most important passenger trains (like the Amtrak Trans-Continental services from Chicago to LA, New York to Miami and so on) are stopped to allow slow moving freight trains to pass, leading sometimes to service delays of several hours for passengers to endure.  How can HST services cope with that on shared tracks?  The country is still firmly wed to fossil fuels - cars, long distance Greyhound buses, huge freight lorries and of course airlines are all favoured over rail. There is little to suggest anything will change soon, despite their climate pledges.

Europe is quite blessed in this regard, with a network of HSTs, including an ever-increasing number of sleeper services, in most countries that are all linked by the Eurail network to allow journeys from, for example, Inverness in Scotland to Palermo in Sicily on a single fare taking less than 2 days.  Sure: not ideal for business travellers, but if you're in no hurry, then it's a great start (or end) to your vacation I would say.  That route is, of course, an extreme: Eurostar does London to Paris in a couple of hours, Deutsche Bahn Berlin to Munich in a similar time, SBB Zurich to Zug in an hour, Geneva in a couple.  Shorter distance journeys, city centre to city centre, are often quicker by HST than by air since there are no journeys in traffic to the airport, no security lines and passport checks to delay you (at least, within the EU Schengen travel zone).  With the train accommodation typically including tables of some kind for all seats, power points and wireless internet connection, in both First and Second class, working on your journey is perhaps easier than on a plane.  The fares are cheaper, too (though sometimes not by much).  And in most cases, out the window is the most beautiful scenery that you simply do not see from a plane at 40,000 feet, even on the clearest day.  The only way to appreciate any country is from ground level.

I remember years ago, when Eurostar first ran services, I spent a few months shuttling between London and Paris a couple of times a week, and there were always people beavering away during the journey. There were few mobile phones (and those that were around were the size of house-bricks) and no wifi then, and not a laptop in sight, but work was still being carried out.  On my first trip, travelling with my boss who had piles of papers spread across our table before we had even pulled out of Paddington, I focused more on the views out of the train window and contemplating Life, The Universe and Everything, enjoying the novelty of catching a direct train to Paris without a 90 minute ferry trip in the middle.  My boss was not best pleased and delivered an almighty bollocking in front of a carriage full of people....  I didn't travel with him again.  But on a more recent trip (though still ten years ago now) there were laptops a-plenty on display, my own included, and everyone jabbering away on mobiles - as indeed was I, a couple of times.  I still enjoyed the journey and kept my laptop resolutely packed in its bag, a solo traveller with no pressure or guv'nor peering over my shoulder and checking up on me.  Much nicer.

Given the train option these days, I would choose it over plane every time, when given the choice  - but unfortunately this is a bit tricky from Poland.  The country is not yet part of the Eurail network, which can make booking tickets a little tricky (the PKP website is slow, clunky and offers only a restricted destination choice). As an example, pre-Pandemic I planned a trip to the UK and thought it would be fun to go from Warsaw to St. Pancras by train.  I couldn't add the route on PKP's website, so went into the Central Station here to the Intercity booking office (now closed....).  The only way I could do it was to buy a ticket to Berlin, then buy a separate ticket there for the rest of the trip. Doing this would cost more (Polish fares are cheap, denominated in zloty, but the remaining fare payable in euros would be higher).  I checked the Deutsche Bahn website where I was able to book the entire Warsaw to London St. Pancras trip, for a single euro-priced fare (that was indeed quite expensive).  The situation remains the same two years later.

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Long distance buses are another alternative, and one that has flourished for donkey's years in the US with its huge Greyhound network.  Similar services are now growing in popularity across Europe, too, with highly competitive (i.e. cheap) pricing.  Most of them are bookable on-line, very easily, and are run by a swathe of private coach companies (as opposed to national carriers) most of which seem to operate on the Low Cost Carrier airline model.  Essentially, they are RyanAir on the Roads.  

Now, I haven't taken a trip yet, because although you travel on a luxury coach (I use the word "luxury" advisedly...), it's still a coach, even if there is a bit more legroom and a toilet on board.  I also have a dodgy back, two dodgy hips and two dodgy knees (though my ankles are fine, thanks) so the idea of spending 24 hours or more in a bus seat with limited recline does not fill me with enthusiasm.  That said, the prices can be so low that I am tempted to give it a try one day, just for the hell of it.  FlixBus, for instance (the biggest service provider in Poland and operating throughout Europe) was at one point, a year or so ago, offering a return fare from Warsaw to London Victoria Coach station for just twenty euros..... They were practically giving the things away.  There were of course booking conditions attached (I can't remember what they were I'm afraid) but still.....seems like a bargain to me.

Recently I found a vlog on YouTube by a middle aged couple from Birmingham who record loads of coach trips and post the films on line.  This one covered a journey from (if I remember correctly) Riga in Latvia to London Victoria via Warsaw, and it certainly opened my eyes.  They were on a different carrier (I think Eurolines) and on an older coach and it was a tough trip of nearly two and a half days (of which the Warsaw - London leg was just under 23 hours).  There were regular fuel stops that allowed passengers to dive into the garage to buy supplies for the next leg, crew changes, roadwork detours and traffic delays - and LONG toilet queues.....  The seats were comfortable enough, allegedly, but not for a decent sleep, so our two travellers arrived at Victoria exhausted, an hour late having missed their connecting bus to Birmingham and facing another three hour wait and the cost of an additional ticket....   

So I'm not at all convinced buses offer a good alternative to flying, unless you're a) very fit indeed, with no joint problems, b) happy to take a couple of days or more to get somewhere, and c) skint and unable to afford something better.  At least, for now...

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But the good old car will remain an alternative, especially if you don't want to mix with a lot of strangers in an enclosed space for a couple of days and you have a low-emissions electric or hybrid vehicle.  These of course are growing in popularity as their prices drop and battery charges last longer and take less time to carry out.  And there is still work to be done on that score, as well as providing the support infrastructure - for instance I don't know of any service station in the Warsaw area that has a number of charging points alongside the petrol, diesel and LPG pumps.  And once those difficulties are resolved, I remain unconvinced it's for me.

For a start there are the aforementioned joint problems.  More importantly, I'm over 70 now and my night vision, even with decent glasses, isn't what it was.  Nor are my reflexes.  Quite simply, I don't enjoy driving any distance these days, especially on the wrong side of the road surrounded by idiots who think mirrors are for applying make up, indicators are a Christmas decoration, the number on a speed sign the lowest allowed, and are still not sure what that clock thing on the dashboard with numbers on it that stop at 180 is actually for......

That said, there are some nice drives to be had.  The one from home to the Baltic coast for our holiday has improved immeasurably since the motorway network exploded in time for the Euro 2012 football tournament we hosted, and improved further with completion a few months ago of the Warsaw ring-road that feeds the city: the closest access for me is about a kilometre from home.  The travel time has effectively halved, and depending on which resort you are going to there is some lovely scenery to enjoy.  

Further afield, in 2018 we holidayed in Croatia and took the car.  Once we hit that same motorway we stayed on it (though in the opposite direction) all the way through the Czech Republic, Austria and Slovenia, through some beautiful mountain scenery into Croatia and the coast.  Even with traffic (July, peak holiday season) it could take less than a day each way.  We broke our journeys in each direction, overnighting in Bratislava going and Vienna homeward bound, and it was thoroughly enjoyable.

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Finally, there are ships.  Given that most of our planet is covered by water, they will always be a vital part of our transportation network, and even now carry the majority of freight around the world.  It's difficult to see any real alternative to do that, nor any way to speed it up.

But in terms of leisure travel - which is, after all, my concern these days - the waterways, whether sea or river, offer a huge variety.  Cruising is big business, but I'm not sure I'd enjoy it......  Being in a plane or even a coach or train for a few hours, going to a holiday destination where I can follolop on the sand to my heart's content for a couple of weeks is one thing.  Being cooped up on board a huge ship with several thousand other passengers for the same amount of time is something altogether different.  Even when the ship has 15 or 16 floors, several restaurants, casinos, pools, gyms, bars and live entertainment in plush theatres.  I wouldn't want to "dress for dinner" for a start - I don't put on a jacket and tie at home before I eat (except on Christmas Day) so I'm buggered if I want to do it every night because of some rule or tradition.  Nor do I want to be tied to specific meal times and restaurant tables - no, I want to eat where I fancy and when I'm hungry.  I'm on holiday, not at school!   What about excursions, to see something on the places you dock at every day or so?  Well, some might be interesting, but by and large I want to take my time, amble around, go where I want and look at what catches my eye, not what someone else tells me I should see.  And perhaps come back again the next day to have another look.  No, all this regimentation, all this forced enjoyment, is not my idea of a good holiday - perhaps I'm just a bit anti-social?

River cruising might be an option though: it seems a good deal less formal and less regimented, the ships are much smaller, catering for not much more than 100 people (so not even a plane-full) and travel at a slower pace.  And always within sight of land on calm waters......  A couple of weeks on the Rhine or the Danube might be interesting, lots of lovely scenery on both banks, interesting towns and cities to explore (and at my own choice, since the excursions are apparently not mandatory and there is generally a bit more time with no tides to catch for departure, and a shorter distance to the next stop).  Something to consider at any rate.

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Anyway, we shall see in due course I guess.  2050 seems a long way away still - I will turn 97 then, assuming I live that long, so my travelling days are likely to be long gone!  And in the meantime I'll carry on making my plans, going to new places and old favourites (as often as I can at any rate) and no doubt recording a lot of it on here.