Today's News: Wonky Weather and Political Crises

I have to say the weather has been unseasonably warm the last few days here.  Temperatures in Poland aren't usually in the mid teens, with sunshine and blue skies, at this time in November.  The lovely red sunsets and golden sunrises streaming through my apartment windows are more what you expect in May or September.  There has been a fairly gusty wind the last 2 days which have kept the temperature down a bit, but it's still been excellent walking and biking weather.  Of course, I've taken advantage of it with a 16km bike ride on Saturday, a similar distance hike through Kabaty Forest to Piaseczno and the surrounding area on Sunday, and a 25km bike ride out to Wilanów via Kabaty yesterday (you can look at where they are on Google Maps - suffice to say they are suburbs at the southern extremities on the city).  All very pleasant, and helping the dodgy hips no end.

But it hasn't always been like this.  I can remember back in I think 2004 coming back from a late holiday (this was before marriage and a family) in Egypt and landing from 30C heat in Hurghada, wearing shorts and a t-shirt, at the end of October, to find Warsaw shivering in -5C temperatures and snow.  Going further back, my first winter here (2000-1) there was a heavy snowfall at the end of October that dumped well over a metre of snow on the city that lasted right through to the following April.  A steady easterly kept temperatures to minus double figures for most of that time (there is little to stop such winds this side of the Urals).  I had to buy a new wardrobe as my rainy day English winter clothes were hopelessly inadequate.  The following winter was little better.

Since then, the temperatures have moderated and bitter cold weather like that is much less common.  As indeed are the long hot summers that I enjoyed in my first few years here.  They are much more British now - that is to say, with more rain than previously - but still overall better and longer.  I'm happy with that.

Global warning?  Climate change?  Probably, especially when you take into account the extreme weather events that are clearly more frequent and more severe across the entire continent (including the British Isles).  There is certainly general agreement among climate scientists (and yes, I accept there remain dissenting voices - though increasingly muted) that we are in a developing climate crisis, with the latest prognosis being that in about 11 years it will all be irreversible.  God only knows what kind of a world my kids and grandkids will live in after that - I intend to stick around to see at least some of it. 


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The political landscape is also undergoing a major shift, and there is as much turmoil and uncertainty there as in the climate crisis.  And just as many arguments about a cause and uncertain effect.

A few years ago, when the odious Donald Trump swept into the White House on a wave of personal abuse, mass voter appeal (that I still cannot understand) and it seems like the assistance - whether financial or otherwise - from the equally grim ex-KGB officer Putin, many judges thought this was the start of a tide of populism that was set to sweep away the old political establishment.   Within months a similar populist movement (short on facts but long on rhetoric) persuaded the British people to vote in favour of leaving the EU causing fractures in society that are if anything more deep seated and unsolvable now than at the time of Referendum.  Elsewhere, there were genuine fears that in Italy, France, the Netherlands and Germany forthcoming elections would result in populist governments that would by definition threaten the existence of the EU itself.

The fears were largely unfounded. The "populist revolution" did not take root and apart from in Italy the Establishment (for want of a better term) retained power, even if with in most cases diluted majorities.  The exception was in Italy, where a populist government was elected but didn't last long: after it fell mid term, new elections went back to something like normality (whatever that is: elections seem to be second only to football as a national sport there), though the populist parties still retain a big say in the country's affairs.

The EU itself has appointed a new Commission team that has, after this year's elections to the EU Parliament, a clear mandate for change, and it will be interesting to see what will come about over the next few years.  There is a recognition, in my view, that the Union needs to change and move away from a fully integrated Federal Europe to a more workable group of member states who work closely together whilst retaining their sovereignty.  Which is precisely what that idiot Cameron wanted from his last EU Summit as British Prime Minister - but when he didn't get everything he demanded (which was never likely to happen anyway), instead of negotiating his toys were thrown out of the pram, the Referendum called, and the country damaged for a generation.  It's a huge regret to me that instead of being in a position to influence, perhaps lead, this evolution of the EU we are instead walking away from it, amid a constitutional crisis of our own making, and facing up to a diminished future.

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Amid this uncertainty, the election season is open in both Britain and the USA.  Next year was always going to be an election year across the pond, and it's in full swing already.  Trump, as expected, is demanding a second term (God help us all!) and has already begun tramping round the country addressing "his people" in mass rallies similar to those he held during his first election campaign.  The ingredients are the same: railing against The Establishment (which he pledged last time to clean up - "Drain The Swamp!" but has failed to do so - not that his supporters seem to have noticed), personally abusing his potential Democrat challengers, and bigging up his own achievements that in many cases are clearly illusory or exaggerated.  And despite being under the threat if impeachment, for a long list of un-Presidential behaviour culminating in an attempt to coerce the Ukrainian government to "dig the dirt" on Democrat former Vice President and potential challenger Joe Biden and his son to use to his (Trump's) personal gain, the crowds are lapping it up.

The Democrats remain in an apparent disarray.  At last count, they had 18 candidates hoping to get the nomination, with a couple more expected to throw their hats in shortly.  Despite the fact that most of them continue to perform poorly on the stump, and hence have not a chance of getting nominated (let alone elected) none of them are prepared to walk away.  Worse, there seem to be no stand out candidates - leading at the moment are Bernie Sanders, aged 78 and recovering from a heart attack (failed last time) and Joe Biden, aged 76 and clearly slowing up (also failed last term).  Both fell to Hillary Clinton (aged 72) who lost to Trump last time out and is (possibly) going to have another go.  With Trump himself aged 73, suggestions that politics is a young man's game are clearly wide of the mark, at least in the States.

Meanwhile in Britain, the Tory government has called another election, the second since the 2016 Referendum (overriding again the Fixed Term Parliament Act introduced to much fanfare by Cameron in the process) because they have been incapable of delivering Brexit.  This is probably because, having won the argument, no-one actually had a clue what "Brexit" really means.   Months of tedious negotiation and political argument under Theresa May produced a deal with the EU that was not accepted by Parliament - which is riven with as much division as the country as a whole - despite three votes (and three record defeats).  She duly stepped down and was replaced the Brexiteer's cheerleader-in-chief and Daily Telegraph columnist, lately masquerading as Foreign Secretary (before being sacked for incompetence) Boris Johnson.  He promptly lost his first half a dozen votes in the Commons, kicked out 21 of his own MPs who voted against him, thus losing his slim majority, but managed to agree another deal.  A-ha!  No - this one was offered by the EU nearly two years ago, but refused by May at which time Johnson (then still heading the Foreign Office) said "No British Prime Minister could ever sign off on this".  What changed in the meantime?  Nothing, except the man is desperate to take us out - never mind what's Best for Britain, it's what's Best for Boris.

That deal too was rejected, at which point Johnson demanded an election as the only way of breaking a deadlocked parliament.  After a bit of umm-ing and ah-ing, the Opposition accepted - so here we are, preparing to vote on 5 December.  I will miss out this time - the Electoral Commission, in its infinite wisdom, has refused to grant me a postal vote because I have "not been on the Electoral Roll" for 15 years.  The postal vote I was given a mere three years ago is not counted (or was granted in error, no-one seems to know), even though on both applications I confirmed leaving the UK in 2008 (I make that only 11 years now....).  And that idiot Farage and his mate Boris have the cheek to go on about "failing to deliver Brexit (being) a betrayal of democracy!".

I hope they are well and truly spanked at the Ballot box.  Who will win?  I have no idea, and expect another hung Parliament, but who will be the major party tasked with forming a government, and who will hold the balance of power within it, is anyone's guess.   Clearly, we have a broken political system and some form of electoral reform and proportional representation must come.

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Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, there is rioting in the streets as people protest the lack of democracy in the territory.  It's been going on for five months now, and shows little sign of being resolved.  If anything, it's getting worse.

Essentially, when Britain caved in to diplomatic pressure (and rising costs) and returned Hong Kong to China when its 99 year lease (leasing a country?!?!) ended in 1997, the basis of the agreement was that while Hong Kong would be absorbed into greater China it would retain its own government and political system.  The mantra has since then been "One Country, Two political systems".  Given the squabbles that have been rumbling on over Taiwan and its relationship with China since pretty much the end of World War II (when the state declared its independence from mainland China), the hope that China would accept Hong Kong's status seems remarkably optimistic.

The problem has been that although Hong Kong is able to "elect" its government and its Chief Executive, all the nominees are approved by the Chinese government BEFORE an election takes place.  They are really appointees.  Democracy it ain't, election or no election.  The people have by and large accepted this and continued to prosper, but a new generation of young people has decided to push for a true democratic process.  Their demands are simple enough: applicants (to use a probably inaccurate term) should not be Beijing approved appointees, but drawn from the Hong Kong population-at-large.  Any citizen of Hong Kong should be eligible for election.  The election should be free and fair with multiple candidates for each position.  The electorate should be able to make its own decision at the ballot box.  In other words, give us real democracy please (even if all the candidates are still drawn from the Communist Party that continues to run China)

The Chinese government has refused point blank - they see this as a loss of control, and opening the potential for other political parties to participate (and obstruct them) in Hong Kong's affairs: which to be fair would probably happen sooner rather than later.  But that is democracy.

There have been street protests, mainly peaceful initially.  The leaders have been arrested and imprisoned.  This has only exacerbated the dispute and increased the numbers of protesters on the streets, while widening support across (by now) all walks of life and age groups.  The police, instructed by Beijing, have started using greater force to break up the demonstrations - tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannon have become a fact of life.  The protesters respond by throwing bricks and latterly home made petrol bombs and bows and arrows.  There have been casualties on both sides, and also a handful of deaths amongst the protesters.  Despite this, the demonstrations continue without any let up or reduction in support.  And it's all happening, every day now (it was at the outset only on weekends) on a tv screen near you - global news networks are covering it extensively.

Neither side is prepared to compromise.  The Chinese have now suggested that the "use of live ammunition" may be required.  The protest leaders have admitted they are frightened but are adamant they will not stop protesting until all their demands have been met.

This will turn into a bloodbath.

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What a world we are living in.