Ukraine versus the Russian Bear.

I’ve been watching the situation in Ukraine evolve with interest and a large amount of distress.  Events over the past few days, with Yanukovich doing a runner to his mates in Moscow, the counter rising of pro-Russian activists in the east of the country, and in particular the (so far) bloodless Russian invasion of Crimea, have moved quickly and complicated matters considerably.

I was in Kiev a couple of years ago, just before the Euro football tournament the country co-hosted with Poland – see my post Kiev – Euro 2012 from May 2012 – and found it a nice place.  The country (or at least the little I saw) was enchanting and the city itself an exciting and increasingly Westernized metropolis that offered much to do for tourist and resident alike.  The people seemed to be hard working and clearly looking towards the EU for the future.  The main downside was (and still is) the vast amount of corruption there.  A small example: within a few minutes of crossing the border we were pulled up by the police, probably because our number plates were not Ukrainian.  The document check revealed that we did not have the required insurance permit (which no-one had actually told us we needed).  After a brief discussion, a donation of PLN100, EUR5 and USD5 that went straight into the officer’s wallet (of course without a receipt) smoothed the way, and we were directed to a local garage where we were able to purchase the Green Card.   We were subsequently told that this was very common throughout the country, as the police topped up their low pay in this way: everyone from the President down knew it, and accepted it as part of everyday life.

Given that Yanukovich himself is the most corrupt individual in the country this is really no surprise.  His conduct throughout his two spells as president, in particular his jailing on essentially trumped up charges of rival (and more popular) opposition politician Julia Tymoschenko, has been questionable at the very least, and even two years ago the average Ukrainian couldn’t wait to get rid of him.  Of course, he is not alone.  The country is basically run by a small group of oligarchs – apparently 80% of the country’s wealth is in the hands of a mere 20 individuals – with the rest of population low paid and in many cases close to poverty.  We stayed in one of the wealthier residential areas in Kiev, and the apartment blocks were sub-standard, at least by western European standards.  We passed through poorer areas, both in and outside of the city, and saw a lot of squalor.

If proof of Yanukovich’s corruption is required, news websites here have run a number of articles over the past week, since his flight, showing various properties he “owned” – palatial villas with private pools and 9 hole golf courses in the back garden next to the helipad, dripping with incredibly tacky gold leaf on everything, overstuffed furniture that looked antique but probably isn’t, garages full of limousines….all the trappings of the typical eastern European (in particular Russian) oligarch.  Or gangster.  Another story reported that he had bought one of his daughters a 9 bedroom apartment in Manhattan.  Another daughter was bought an Aegean island (previously gifted by Aristotle Onassis to Jackie Kennedy).  The man is staggeringly wealthy, but the source of that wealth is still shrouded in mystery.  In that, he is similar to his friend Vladimir Putin, who is reckoned to be worth several tens of billions of dollars.  And is equally corrupt – it goes with the Presidential territory in this part of the world.

Faced with that kind of wealth discrepancy, it’s little wonder that most Ukrainians wanted rid of the man and his government.  His decision to drop a proposed trade deal with, and potential membership of, the EU in favour of an immediate payment of several billion dollars and closer economic ties with Russia at the end of last year proved the final straw and the protests started.  I have no doubt you watched it unfold on the tv just as I did.

I remember Independence Square – the Majdan – , where it all unfolded, very well.  When we were there in May 2012 it was an enchanting place.  It was being converted to the main Euro 2012 Fanzone and was dominated by a massive Heineken beer tent designed like half the designated adidas football to be used.  There were massive screens being built to show matches, and many food and drink stalls set up all round the perimeter.  The wide main street that leads into the square is one of the main shopping streets, housing branches of Benetton, Zara, Dior and all the major international stores.  All along both sides were kiosks selling local snack food as well as McDonalds and Pizza Hut.  At one point was a small funfair with a beautiful old carousel – the kids loved it.  You probably saw on the newscasts a column with a beautiful gilded statue at the top.  It stands at the top of a flight of steps and is surrounded by fountains.  During our visit, over the May bank holiday weekend, the steps were turned into a small waterfall in which the kids – and adults too – could splash and play.  We were there late one evening, around midnight, and it was a balmy evening, with temperatures still in the high 20s.  It was crowded with locals and tourists enjoying the holiday atmosphere, drinking beer, eating and laughing and dancing to the street musicians.  We had a lovely time.

Fast forward to now.  The burning tyre barriers.  The shrines to the protestors who lost their lives during the weeks of protest.  The crowds still there, still hoping for a brighter future, closer to the EU than to Putin’s Russia.  The destruction and bloodshed have been painful for me to watch.

And now the corrupt Yanukovich government has been replaced by an unelected group cobbled together from the ranks of the various opposition and protest groups, including the country’s most famous and popular sportsman, the boxer Vladimir Klitschko (who Maggie Lake on CNN insists on calling Kler-tit-ch-ko).  Elections are set for the end of May, and it was expected that this would rubber stamp the protestors’ demands and bring in an EU- leaning government, and everyone would live happily ever after.

The problem is Putin doesn’t see it that way, and nor it seems do many people living in the eastern end of the country and the Crimea, both closer culturally and historically to Russia than to Europe.  Within hours of Yanukovich arriving in Russia the Red Army starts military manoeuvres close to the border with Ukraine.  Russia insists this is purely coincidental, and was a long planned training exercise.  Of course it was…….  The Black Sea fleet of the Russian Navy, based under licence at Sevastopol in Ukrainian Crimea, mobilizes, and other ships start arriving, pulled from Mediterranean duties off Syria – no doubt a coincidence too.  Several thousand troops dressed in battle fatigues, Kevlar armour and helmets, and brandishing AK-47s, but dressed also in masks and without a military insignia anywhere on display, and being transported in unmarked heavy trucks of a distinctly Russian appearance, start patrolling the streets of Sevastopol and Simferopol (the regional capital) and take control of both airports.  Ukrainian flags are replaced by Russian.

Of course, they are Russian troops.  By now the peninsula is under Russian control, and Putin openly admits as much, and says that Russia will do whatever it takes, including use of force, to protect “Russian interests and citizens” there.  Cue outcry in the US, the EU and the UN, all of whom are effectively powerless.  Obama has an extended phone call with Putin, who essentially tells him to piss off – hardly surprising: here is a lame duck US President half way through his final term trying to influence an untouchable President of a huge country that matches the US dollar for dollar and has even bigger mineral wealth to play with.   Why should Putin give a shit what Obama says?  Clearly, he doesn’t.  Angela Merkel has a chat – she it seems has more influence with Putin – but doesn’t really get much further.  Young Bill Hague and Old John Kerry fly in, making pronouncements about “international obligations” being broken and ignored, and threatening sanctions etc etc.  Might make a difference, but only if the rest of the world pulls together – which it won’t, since China has publicly stated it supports Russian actions (never mind other Russian client states like Iran and Syria and Cuba and Venezuela and Byelorussia, who have little clout and will say and do whatever they’re told and in any case have enough problems of their own).  The UN can say what it likes, but Mr.Ban will never be able to force any resolutions through because Russia, as a permanent member of the Security Council has right of veto.

I have no idea how this will play out.  I hope Russia pulls back and allows the Ukrainian people to hold their elections peacefully to determine their own future.  I hope there is no need for any sanctions against anybody, because I doubt they will have much effect on megarich Russia.  I hope no young Russian or Ukrainian soldier panics and does something stupid like shoot someone, because this could kick things off badly.  If a war, God forbid, does kick off, I think Poland would inevitably support Ukraine and send in troops and air strikes, and as NATO members would expect support from other members if Russia retaliates.  Which would be very bad indeed - I live not much more than 250 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, and of course in the event of Russian retaliation Warsaw would be a prime target.

I don’t believe it will come to that……..but one thing in life I do believe is that there are no guarantees.